What Does Brexit Mean For Scotland?

Scotland (source)

When the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, the decision was not unanimous. Although 52% of the country voted for the Brexit, the results were mostly localized, with one strong exception. According to Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, every single local authority area in Scotland voted to stay, which is not entirely surprising.

Back in 2014, when Scotland held its own referendum on independence, it ultimately stayed with the UK under the assumption it would continue to benefit from the EU. Now that that’s no longer the case, what does the future look like for Scotland?

Well, within hours of the Brexit vote, Scottish leaders began calling for a new referendum to leave the UK, and re-join the EU as an independent nation. But just as was the case in 2014, the decision to break away is not that simple. For the past three centuries, Scotland and England have maintained one of the strongest economic, military, and diplomatic relationships in the world.

In 1707, the separated Parliaments of England and Scotland passed the “Acts of Union”, which followed the Treaty of Union in 1706. Their merger to create “Great Britain”, was largely fueled by the fact that the two states, plus Ireland, had already shared a single monarchy for more than 100 years. But that was centuries ago, and as shown by the Brexit referendum, England and Scotland don’t seem to see eye to eye anymore.

Scottish First Minister, Sturgeon, described the removal of Scotland from the EU against its will as "democratically unacceptable". Still, separating from the UK, if Scotland chooses to do so, would be a fairly lengthy process. First, they have to reestablish a referendum. Serious discussions on holding the original 2014 referendum began at least five years in advance, and while it may not take until 2021 for Scotland to vote on its independence, it will likely have to wait until the UK actually begins proceedings to leave in October. From there, it may take another two years to actually separate, based on prior estimates from 2014.

In that time, if the UK leaves the EU before Scotland leaves the UK, Scottish residents would likely lose the current lax immigration and travel policies they’ve previously enjoyed. Additionally, Scotland relies on the UK for defense purposes, and its defense industry employs tens of thousands of Scots. Not only would the newly independent country have to establish a new military, but it would also have a severe economic drawback. But it might not all be bad news.

Following the Brexit vote, the UK’s credit rating was downgraded from triple-A to double-A. If Scotland manages to rejoin the EU, it is possible they’d end up with a higher credit rating than the current UK. And perhaps more worryingly, even if Scotland does manage to break away, there is no guarantee that it’d be able to join the EU at all. The European Commission has made it clear that they will not even consider the question as long as Scotland constitutionally remains in the UK. And while First Minister Sturgeon has already met with European Parliament leaders in Brussels, the President of the European Council has refused to meet with Sturgeon, implying that it was too early for such meetings.

While Scottish voters did agree to stay back in 2014, many are saying that the UK of the future is not the one they agreed to be a part of. While chances there will be an independent Scotland are seemingly very high; how long that might take, and whether it will be able to join the EU on its own is still unknown. So who is behind Brexit anyway? Well, many blame the potential next Prime Minister of the UK, and Former London Mayor, Boris Johnson.

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